By Chris Block
Whether Chicago is just no longer a desirable destination over other franchises, or the Blackhawks had little excitement over the crop of free agents found on this July 1, Stan Bowman and company made quick work of the opening day of NHL free agency.
They came away with very little.
It appears the Blackhawks are no longer a player in big player free agency. Even the players who figured to be within their reach – be it Carter Hutton, Ian Cole, Michael Grabner, Tobias Rieder, Tomas Plekanec, Greg Pateryn or Winnetka native John Moore – they all went elsewhere for relatively little money. Some, likely, got longer term than the Hawks would have been comfortable handing out.
The Hawks did manage a depth forward and defense signing on Sunday, but not names you heard rumored to them anywhere, or that fans were pining for leading up to UFA frenzy day.
And because the Blackhawks decision-makers have found it difficult to move Artem Anisimov’s $4.55M cap hit (through 2021), the next tier of unrestricted players were going to be out of Bowman’s bidding range.
James van Riemsdyk (Philadelphia, 5yrs $7M cap hit), Paul Stastny (Vegas, 3yrs $6.5M cap) and Tyler Bozak (St. Louis, 3yrs $5.0M cap) were all quickly swooped up once the market opened.
The John Tavares ‘decision’ took a little longer to play itself out. Despite Stan Bowman bizarrely responding in coy when asked about Tavares at the draft, Chicago was never in contention for Tavares nor invited to a seat at the table. In the end he turned down more money, and more years, from the Islanders to realize his boyhood fantasy of being a Toronto Maple Leaf. Tavares finalized a 7-year $77 million deal with Toronto a few hours after the market opened. According to Leafs’ GM Kyle Dubas, at the press conference Sunday to introduce Tavares as a Leaf, it became apparent Tavares’ first choice was to play for the Leafs but it took additional negotiations overnight and into July 1st (after the Isles deadline to sign him to an 8-year max-length deal had passed on June 30th) to make that happen. Thus, the Leafs had to sweeten the pot at the final hour from its original offer to make it happen or its likely Tavares would have remained an Islander.
Landing the big-catch in this free agent pool likely makes Toronto the most-despised team across the league’s fanbases. It also now brings with it tremendous expectations. If Toronto doesn’t win Cup(s) now, and even with him they still have holes, Tavares’ career will probably be judged as a failure. No matter what you think of any of the parties involved, Tavares made a gutsy call here.
While all that was going on, the Blackhawks were left to negotiate with what could be called the third tier of unrestricted free agents.
It had been reported in many places over the past week, first by Jay Zawaski of 670 The Score in Chicago, that Chicago was closing in on a deal with veteran Cam Ward.
Ward, 34, signed a 1-year, $3 million deal with the Blackhawks on Sunday. The money came in a little higher than was reported beforehand by numerous sources, including Rogers Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston, who had the deal pegged at $2.5M per, but got the 1-year term correct. Whether those sources got incorrect salary info, or Ward squeezed more money out of the Hawks over the course of the week is unknown at this point. The Blackhawks now have $9.0M tied up in their top two goaltenders. As it stands now, the rest of the depth chart includes Anton Forsberg, Collin Delia, Kevin Lankinen (23, a new signing from Finland) and AHL-contracted Matt Tomkins.
The Ward signing can be seen different ways.
While some may scoff at the money for a backup goaltender, $3 million represents 4% of next year’s upper limit on the cap and at one year, it’s not back-breaking……. as long as Ward can stop more than a few pucks. He is aging, though not much older than Crawford, and has been consistently under the NHL average for save percentage in recent years. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when you consider his recent numbers.
Though, Carolina hasn’t exactly been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent years, the Hurricanes did lead the league in Corsi-for percentage (55.1) according to Hockey-Reference.com. The problem for Bill Peters last season is his team was at the bottom of the league in PDO (Shooting (8.1%) + Save%) and straight save percentage (89.3%). The Hurricanes also had the lowest rate of defensive zone starts in the league last year (Chicago had the second-lowest) according to Hockey Reference. That coupled with the positive possession metric numbers should have led to better fortunes. Had Carolina got even average performances from Ward and Darling, they probably would have been a playoff team. For comparison, Chicago tied for 24th in the NHL in PDO last year with an 8.2% shooting and 90.6% save percentages. Columbus had the 20th best PDO in the NHL last season and no team ranking below that made the postseason.
In an interview with Eric Lear for Blackhawks.TV on Sunday, Stan Bowman dropped a nugget that is central when analyzing the Ward signing.
“Obviously, the goaltending is something we talked about. Looking ahead to next year, trying to get a little bit more experience and someone that’s done that role. So, Cam Ward was a priority for us.”
‘That role’ is the key to those comments. Cam Ward has been a number one the vast majority of his career.
The Blackhawks could have gone after a younger goalie like Petr Mrazek [Carolina, 1yr $1.5M] who came up through Detroit’s system and some believe still has some upside potential. Or, they could have landed Anton Khudobin [Dallas, 2yrs $2.5M per], who went 16-6-7 for Boston last year and has been a serviceable backup in parts of nine NHL seasons with Boston and Carolina. They could have also just rolled the dice again with Anton Forsberg, 25, who is already under contract for next year at $750,000.
Instead, Stan Bowman pursued the goalie with the most experience as an NHL starter. Perhaps Bowman’s claim that the team expects Crawford to be ready to go in time for this fall is right on.
That said, what Ward’s signing, and Bowman’s comment Sunday suggests is a lack of confidence in Corey Crawford’s ability to stay in the lineup in 2018-19. And that’s the biggest takeaway from what the Blackhawks did on Sunday.
If you look at it the way Bowman did, there were really only two options through free agency – Cam Ward or Jaroslav Halak.
Ward, 34, is 10 months older than Crawford and 14 and ½ months Halak’s elder. Size-wise, Ward is listed at two inches taller than Halak (5’11”).
When comparing their basic stats, while Cam Ward has more experience in the regular season (568 starts to Halak’s 418) and playoffs (41 to Halak’s 28), Halak boasts better Goals Against (2.50 to 2.70) and Save (.916 to .909) averages in the regular season. Ward and Halak own virtually identically playoff GAA’s but Halak’s save percentage in postseason is also better (.924 vs .917) than Ward’s. Of course, the difference between the two goalies is Ward won a Stanley Cup with Carolina in 2006, but that was when Ward was a 21-year old rookie. He is now 34.
Carolina tried to push Ward into the backup role last season with the signing of Scott Darling. That didn’t play itself out as planned when Darling turned out to be a disaster in his first chance to be an NHL number one. Of Ward’s 43 appearances last season, 29 came from January 2nd on. In those 29 games, Ward posted a 13-12-3 record with a 2.83 GAA and .899 save percentage. Bad performances in a four-start string of losses (.842 sv) in March, with Ward in net, killed Carolina’s playoff hopes, as far-reaching as those may have been.
As this market played itself out, it became blatantly obvious the Blackhawks were in a terrible spot.
Crawford’s status (still cloudy) didn’t give them many options. If Crawford does turn up to training camp 100 percent and with no lingering effects, then he’ll command the Hawks net for 55 or more games. That possibility excluded the Hawks from the Carter Hutton talks, who was looking for a place where he could get a legitimate shot to be a number one, at least for the immediate future.
Hutton going to Buffalo reunites him with Andrew Allen, his goalie coach when Hutton was in Rockford (2011-13). Hutton first made a name for himself as a pro with Rockford and he and Allen have a good working relationship. The Sabres have a 24-year old Swedish netminder, Linus Ullmark, who they are high on, but Ullmark sputtered in the playoffs in Rochester this past spring. Hutton, 32, could shock a lot of people and become a diamond in the rough type for the Sabres at a relatively cheap cost. At the very least, Hutton can bridge a gap for Buffalo until Ullmark is ready, or the Sabres get to a point when they are a stronger contender and improve the position another way.
Same goes for Detroit, who signed Jonathan Bernier to a 3-year, $9.0 million contract on Sunday. The Red Wings have one-year left on Jimmy Howard’s (34) $5.3M per cap hit. Howard was in net 60 times last season, but that’s mostly because Petr Mrazek faultered and was eventually traded to the Flyers mid-season. Bernier, 29, will get another opportunity to be a number one here as Howard has been inconsistent in net for a few years now.
Chicago couldn’t guarantee Hutton or Bernier those opportunities. So, no matter how you look at the money or term, those players were never in the mix for the Hawks.
Crawford’s contract expires after the 2019-20 season.
If Crawford’s career was in jeopardy at this point, one would assume the Blackhawks would have been more aggressive in going after Hutton or Bernier. Their reluctance to seems to suggest they expect Crawford to resume a full load next season, or they simply don’t know for sure and couldn’t guarantee anyone anything.
The latter seems to be more accurate in light of the Ward signing.
Chicago has been high on Collin Delia, who just turned 24 last month. Delia is a big goalie who is also a tremendous skater. He moves very quickly post to post and recovers is position well. Delia made a tremendous leap in his development last year after some adjustments in November narrowed some holes in his game. Delia became Rockford’s starter in postseason and was mostly dominant until the IceHogs lost the first two games of the Conference Final in Texas. Jeff Glass took over after that and Rockford extended the series to a game six before being eliminated with 9 seconds to go in the first overtime on Memorial Day in Austin.
Delia is an intriguing prospect – probably the best goaltending prospect the Blackhawks have had in Rockford since Crawford. But, if you like Delia, as the Hawks do, it’s best for Delia to be playing games in the AHL in 2018-19 as opposed to being the backup or prematurely trying out for the starter’s role. The fundamental areas of his game are strong. Delia, though, struggles with rebound control and is prone to giving up rebounds in bad areas. His glove hand isn’t a strong as you’d like it, either. The puck pops of out his mitt more than it should. His greatest strength last season was tracking the puck. Delia got in front of everything he saw. Next step for him is having a better command of the puck after it hits him.
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In marginal depth moves, the Blackhawks signed a left wing and bottom pair defenseman on Sunday.
Chris Kunitz inked a 1-year deal with the Hawks, worth $1 million. Kunitz will be 39 when the regular season begins. He played all 82 games last season with Tampa Bay, notching 13 goals and 16 assists. The playoffs were a different story though. Kunitz managed just one assist in 17 postseason contests for the Lightning. Since he scored 35 goals with Pittsburgh during the 2013-14 campaign, Kunitz has played 307 regular season games, scoring 56 goals and 82 assists (0.45 points per game).
The Kunitz signing mirrors the Sharp depth signing of last summer in the sense that it’s a player near the end of the line who the Hawks hope to move up and down the lineup over the course of the year and cross their fingers that there’s something still left of the player if the playoffs come to pass. It also will make it even harder for prospects like Matthew Highmore and Victor Ejdsell to legitimately compete for a roster spot out of training camp. Kunitz best spot to help the Hawks would be on a power play unit.
Chicago also got Brandon Manning, a 28-year old left-shooting blue liner, who Philadelphia let go. He’s best known for the hit that broke Connor McDavid’s left clavicle in 2015. In their follow-up meeting the next season, McDavid claimed Manning intimated he did it on purpose.
Manning got a 2-year deal at $2.25M per, to join an already convoluted group of marginal depth defenseman behind aging top-earners Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook that includes Jan Rutta ($2.25M), Connor Murphy ($3.85M), Erik Gustafsson ($1.2M), Jordan Oesterle ($650k), Gustav Forsling ($872,500) and possibly Carl Dahlstrom ($750k). Manning is not a puck mover so he’ll have to be paired with one.
The move to add Manning also either signals the Hawks are looking to make more adjustments to their blue line, or have little confidence that their prospects in Rockford are ready to make the next step.
Henri Jokiharju, who turned 19 in June, will also be given a look in training camp but is considered a long-shot to make the club out of camp. Jokiharju had 12 goals and 59 assists in his second season with the Portland Winterhawks (WHL). If he doesn’t make the Blackhawks out of camp, Jokiharju will likely choose not to return to the Winterhawks, instead deciding between Tappara in Finland’s top pro league or the Rockford IceHogs. Jokiharju is exempt from the CHL-NHL transfer rules. Under the agreement, CHL junior players cannot play in the American Hockey League if they remain under the age of 20 by December 31st of that particular season. Portland got Jokiharju in the CHL import draft but because Tappara kept him on their reserve roster and loaned him to Portland, instead of doing a full transfer of rights, Jokiharju is not subjected to the 20-year old rule for CHL players playing in the AHL. It’s a loophole in the agreement. If Jokiharju isn’t NHL ready now, the key for the Blackhawks should be to get his contract to slide into a fourth year – which would only happen if Jokiharju plays no more than 9 NHL games this year.
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The Blackhawks also officially signed their first 2018 1st Round draft choice on Sunday.
Adam Boqvist, who won’t turn 18 until August 15th, inked his 3-year entry-level contract Sunday. Boqvist also has a valid contract with Byrnas of the Swedish Hockey League, where he is all but certain to play next season. Signing Boqvist means he’ll attend Blackhawks’ training camp in September.
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In summary, the Blackhawks did little to improve their team on Sunday.
I find it difficult to nitpick the Ward signing for a couple reasons. For one, we don’t know for sure what’s going on with Crawford. I expect him to be at training camp. I suspect he’ll play in the preseason. What happens from there is tough to call.
And even if Crawford is healthy and ready to play again, will he return seamlessly to the performer he was in 2017? That’s as big of an unknown as anything.
Signing a goalie who has experience handling the pressures of being the number one for long periods of time was the right call. Personally, I would have gone with Jaroslav Halak, but clearly the Hawks didn’t want to commit anything beyond this year. So, Ward was the guy to fit the call. Now, we wait and see if Ward can make a late-career return to form of several seasons gone by. It’s along shot. In reality, if it comes to that, the Blackhawks chances of making the playoffs are not good no matter who they signed today.
As of late Sunday, the top remaining free agents are James Neal [VGK], Rick Nash [BOS] and defenseman Calvin de Haan [NYI].
The Hawks did nothing to improve themselves at the center position. Doing so would likely involve relieving themselves of Anisimov’s contract.
The best move Chicago could make on Sunday would have been brokering a deal to take Ryan O’Reilly off Buffalo’s hands. Reilly is the premier faceoff man in the league and can also contribute on the power play and penalty kill.
O’Reilly, 27, has five years left on a deal with an average $7.5M cap hit. Buffalo is working hard to move him before the end of the day July 1 because he’s due a $7.5M signing bonus today. His contract is structured similarly going forward as he’s due $5.0M signing bonuses on July 1st each of the next four summers when his total contract will be $6M per season.
Acquiring O’Reilly would solve a lot of the Blackhawks’ problems. (Note: As I’m publishing this Sunday evening, its being reported that St. Louis has acquired O’Reilly in exchange for Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson and a 2nd round pick in 2021. So, St. Louis were able to move players they were happy to get rid of in exchange for a prominent two-way multi-purpose center. Great move for the Blues.)
They need someone to take the defensive zone faceoff load off of Jonathan Toews’ hands. Toews’ faceoff stats have remained steady, but he’s not the same player he’s been competitively in his own zone. And that’s a problem the Blackhawks have across four lines. Last season, the Hawks had to expend too much time and energy getting the puck out of their end.
The drop in Toews’ offensive production directly relates to his increase in defensive zone starts the past three seasons (all over 40% – 41.5, 44.6, 42.8% last year) as much as it does the dive in his shooting percentage.
Dealing for O’Reilly, however would cost the Blackhawks roster players and prospects. Buffalo would almost certainly demand DeBrincat, or Schmaltz in a package with other picks and lesser prospects. Even though the Hawks have too many of the Schmaltz, Sikura, Hinostroza type forwards for their own good, I don’t see Bowman being bold enough to pull off that kind of move – as much as it would improve the team this year and going forward.
Tomas Plekanec would have been another option, but he went back to Montreal, signing for one-year at $2.25M + a potential of another $1.25M in performance bonuses, per CapFriendly.com. Plekanec is nothing more than a third or fourth line center these days, but he still wins faceoffs. Only nine players in the league took more short-handed faceoffs than Plekanec, and he and Ryan O’Reilly were tied at 54.5% for best on short-handed faceoffs in the defensive-zone last season. Plekanec could have helped, but at $3.5 million I can understand how the Hawks would take a pass.
Defensively, the Hawks are in another bind. I’d prefer to see them give Forsling and Dahlstrom a shot this year over guys like Oesterle and Manning. Dahlstrom is a lot more comfortable carrying the puck now than in prior years. We only saw glimpses of that in his short stint on the NHL roster last year. That will improve with more experience. He’s an off season of strength gains away from being a legitimate NHL roster contender, in my opinion. But the Manning signing will likely keep Dahlstrom in Rockford, if it doesn’t force him into a future trade. Or, both.
In all, it was a disappointing day for the Hawks. But, I’m not sure how much more could’ve been expected outside of perhaps over-spending on depth additions. The Hawks are no longer a place players will take less money to play for in hopes of winning a Cup. That particular window has apparently passed.
On the ice, this a team that’s fortunes this coming season will rely on the health (and play) of Corey Crawford and how much production it gets from DeBrincat, Schmaltz, Sikura, Hinostroza and to a lesser extent Brandon Saad. The defense is a major question mark too. But it’s the organization’s young players coming through for the NHL roster that will ultimately determine where the Hawks finish next year.
And nothing the Hawks did today would have changed that much.
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ChrisBlock@TheThirdManIn.com
PuckChatter@gmail.com
Twitter.com/ChrisBlock
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